Roundup: Palestinian analysts pessimistic about swift resolution in Gaza conflict

GAZA, Oct. 9 (Xinhua) — The Gaza Strip’s future is shrouded in uncertainty as the Israel-Hamas conflict marks its somber first anniversary. Palestinian experts are pessimistic about a swift resolution, citing intricate regional dynamics and intransigent positions that hinder peace efforts.
The current conflict, which erupted in October 2023 when Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza, launched a surprise attack on Israel, has become the longest in Israeli history since the country’s founding in 1948.
As the conflict has progressed, Israel has expanded its operations beyond Gaza’s borders, raising concerns about a potential broader regional conflagration.
This expansion, according to Dawood Talhami, a Ramallah-based Palestinian expert, suggests that “Israel’s objectives extend beyond its stated goal of preventing future Hamas attacks.”
Ayman Yousuf, a Palestinian expert in Ramallah, believes that the expansion of hostilities to include Hezbollah may be a tactic to complicate ceasefire negotiations with Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to continue the war until achieving what he terms an “absolute victory” over Hamas. This stance has remained firm despite growing international calls for a ceasefire and mounting pressure from within Israel, where some citizens have criticized the government’s handling of the conflict.
Hussam al-Dajani, a Gaza-based analyst, observes that “Netanyahu is using his role as wartime leader to secure his political position and appease those who have lost confidence in his government’s ability to ensure their security.”
Widespread criticism of Netanyahu’s administration surfaced after the initial Hamas attack, which was seen by many Israelis as a massive intelligence and security failure.
Palestinian analysts such as Talhami also noted that U.S. support for Israel in the conflict has complicated efforts to halt the violence as this support has emboldened Israel’s military actions.
The ongoing U.S. presidential election cycle adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Al-Dajani suggests that Netanyahu may be considering the potential outcomes of the U.S. election in his strategic calculations, potentially adjusting his approach based on whether Republicans or Democrats secure the presidency.
Looking ahead, the path to a political solution remains unclear. Ghassan al-Khatib, a political analyst in Ramallah, suggests that Gaza may face an extended period of Israeli military control, potentially lasting several years. However, he warns that such a situation is likely to fuel further resistance among Palestinians in Gaza.
Talal Okal, an analyst based in Gaza, cautions that a prolonged war could lead to increased Palestinian resistance.
“This means we could face many years of conflict in Gaza, not just months of,” Okal said. ■